Everything you need to know about Pew Research’s pretty detailed 2012 poll comes from these two charts, first the party/demographic breakdown chart of President Obama’s approval ratings:
Whites and people 50 and older really, really do not like President Obama, at about the same rate, mid 30′s for, mid 50′s against. But a funny thing happens when you ask them to actually choose a Republican to vote for:
Mitt Romney has the smallest albatross around his neck with 42% of voters saying they’d never vote for the guy. The rest of the Republican field is basically completely unelectable, particularly Sarah Palin. 97% of registered voters have heard of her, and 67% of that group say there’s no chance they would ever vote for here. None. Newtie, Santorum, Bachmanniac, Ron Paul, all toast. Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman are relative unknowns, but I seriously doubt either one of their numbers would improve as people get to know them better.
The best Super Texas Action Rick Perry could hope for is 50% of the vote and change.
So no, right now I’m still not worried about President Obama losing.
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As much as these disapproval ratings are higher than I like, isn’t this normal? That is, my understanding is that no one likes the incumbent, the incumbent’s popularity is always much lower than you’d think, and yet they almost always get reelected. It’s the challenger whose approval ratings are much higher way before the election than in the close run-up to the race because the electorate hasn’t gotten close and seen their faults.
Am I remembering this correctly?
I’m white, male, and 50+ and I think President Obama is probably the very best person (both the best-qualified and the best human being) to be President I can imagine in the US right now.
What would also be worth showing here is the overall – here what we’re presented with is a collection of internals. Then again, I had to dig to page 3 on the Pew Research site to even find the “generic ballot” listed. Right now, it’s a narrow (43% – 40%) Obama lead. Worrisome, though not overly so.
Frankensteinbeck, I believe that you remember correctly.
I think that Obama is a different breed of cat to many. he is not a mainstream guy, except academically. He is different in so many ways: black; raised in a bi racial family in Hawaii; spent part of childhood in Indonesia. His persona and presentation are different the common run of politician.
I think the only chance the Republicans have in 2012 is to follow Maxine Waters’ example and tell the Tea Party to go to hell. Since the Tea Party is hardly the new phenomena our dumb media treats it as but is instead the Republican base (SoCons in patriot drag), that is not gonna happen. They show every sign of doing just the opposite.
Therefore, I am reasonably confident in President Obama’s reelection despite the horrible economy and despite the fact that the Republicans in Congress are hell-bent on ensuring that the economy stays horrible to benefit their electoral prospects.
I do not have a lot of faith in the intelligence of the American voter. However, the Republicans have adopted a politically suicidal strategy of openly screwing the middle-class in favor of their fat cat patrons. They’ll use the “god, guns, gays and OMG black-brown people!” ruse to distract the rubes as they have for decades. But I don’t think they’ll get away with it this time. To succeed, that strategy requires a certain amount of voter complacency. We haz none now.
Betty Cracker, you may be right. It could easily work out that way.
My feeling is human nature is at play here, less politics. Any new, shiny object is more enticing than the one in your bureau drawer.
The world is a mess now, even Mother Nature is off. We left MA where we did feel the quake to return to CT where we shopped for hurricane supllies. People think, “maybe the NEXT President will be the deus ex machina. And Pavlovian theory figures in here as well. Which President was in the WH during these wretched times? Obama. Sure, intellectually we understand that it was Bush’s legacy, but still…and finally, he’s Black. Hell, we could give that a pass when things were OK, but now? He’s BLACK.
This looks like a good time to put on my Republican Establishment hat and play some Devil’s Advocate. I’m fairly convinced there is a broader strategy at play that is easy to overlook. And it’s based on the premise that the White House will be occupied by President Obama for a second term.If the Republican Party was really serious about winning the WH in 2012, they have a much better field of candidates available. Essentially, the GOP has a field of cheerleaders designed to motivate voters to get to the polls and strengthen the “down ballot”.
The broad strategy? Focus on Congress and State level elections. Utilize the Tea Party orgs for generating support. Lightly admonish the highly charged rhetoric, but only to keep more moderate Republicans (right-leaning Independents) from staying at home. This also establishes an underlying premise for 2014/2016 when the GOP establishment will shift away from Tea Party. Elected Tea Party officials will either bend toward traditional Republican values or be forced out. We see an early hint of this in New Hampshire. The ideal result for 2012? Congress goes Red with a mix of Tea Party and Establishment candidates. Pres Obama actually crushes the “Tea Party backed” nominee (likely Perry). Following those results, the national dialogue from the GOP will shift toward the Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio type of ticket for 2016. 2014 will provide an opportunity for Republican candidates for Congress to stress their “moderate” approach to “sensible solutions”.
Why is it easy to overlook? It’s long term, something that Liberals and the Democratic Party have a real problem dealing with. Look at how fast the 50 State Strategy was abandoned since it didn’t provide immediate results in Universal Healthcare. The 2012 Pres race is the brightest, shiniest object the GOP could hope for and the left is responding as expected. The left is focused entirely on the “those Repubs are friggin’ crazy!” debate, meanwhile Karl Rove quietly agrees with the left…for a purpose.
I agree with BlueTooth. The Republicans are trying to keep the “wave” alive by encouraging the Tea Party types who are the closest thing to a grass roots movement they’ve ever had, even though started and funded by the Koch Bros.
However, the side effect is Democrats are getting worried which should bring them to the polls in 2012 to vote straight D tickets.
I agree that it “should” bring Dems to their senses and vote. And it will if we start recognizing the strategies being employed on the right. There is nothing “credible” in the Tea Party facade. The alleged principles are nothing more than propaganda, but the key component the Republicans have going for them is a “culture of confidence”. They can blame Democrats for every fault of the Bush Administration with confidence, no matter how far-fetched the premise may be. And to 90% of Americans, that’s enough to establish the premise as a “perceived truth”. When the Democratic Party is constantly on it’s heels screaming “that’s not true” and swatting flies, the GOP has a distinct advantage.
As an example of how ludicrous this public debate has become, I offer the Karl Rove versus Rick Perry dust-up. Texas only appears to be doing well when compared to a National economy that is just emerging from the greatest financial crisis and upheaval since the Great Depression. When compared to the results Texas “could have” achieved, the record isn’t impressive. Everyone pretty much knows this, but it wasn’t until Karl Rove offered his light criticism of the “Bernanke lynching in Texas” that the media even cocked it’s head sideways and questioned the results Perry is boasting. The Republicans control the debate. Democrats can scream “foul!” over and over and it’s passed off as partisan objection. But when Karl Rove speaks? Suddenly there’s credibility to the criticism. This is a scary situation and if we’re relying on MSNBC or CurrentTv to carry the message forward, we’re in an even scarier situation.
The solution for the left, in my opinion, is to get back to basics. Focus on the solutions and ignore the false premise that “real solutions” require some implied adherence to incorporating conservative “values” into the mix. Instead, incorporate some of their rhetoric. When it comes to spending, differentiate between long and short term. It’s not just “deficit”, it’s the “deficit drivers”. Deficit drivers are those programs like No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D. Those programs are NOT healthy investments. The left can utilize some of the “rhetoric” from the right and soften it’s partisan edge regarding spending, deficit, debt and the infamous “entitlements”. I suggest that we have to.
Romney’s the only one at all electable in general election but the Republican voters seem to like Perry. Perry however is Bush 2.0 If you loved Bush you will really, really love Perry. Could American memories be that short?
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2011/08/rick-perry-bush-20.html
If Obama loses, I fear for our country. I just don’t see that we even have a chance for a future if he does.
Those of us watching Dominionism rise – Perry, Bachmann, Palin – should never underestimate them. BlueTrooth is correct, we also believe that it is 2016 that is the real goal.
Sinclair Lewis wrote of fascism that when it comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross. The obvious buffoons of 2012 may just be the stalking horses for someone who does NOT, like Ron Paul, show his true colors. Beware the statesman-like GOP candidate who hides his real goals under cover of conventional conservatism. The reason I doubt the GOP will come back by kicking out the base of Tea Pary/Dominionists is that this IS the GOP now and in the foreseeable future. BlueTrooth is correct – but with the proviso that the 2016 candidate may be more vile than these candidates today in hiding who he really is. And it will be a “he” – it won’t be a woman – they can’t pass the test with the base demanding submissiveness. By that moment, the true believers will be brought to disciplined heel and will be backing a candidate who seems more conventional but who, they will be quietly assured, is one of them.
The Dems need to grow up – the progressives that have come to hate Obama are only 14.9% of the Congress, and they do NOT run the show. Their heroes – Feingold and Grayson = LOST their elections since their “progressive” base evaporated or did not ever really exist. The party needs long-range planning with 2015-16 as the time to begin that long view by carefully preparing for the short term. This year, 2012, Dems need to vote for even the doggiest of the Blue Dogs to take back the House and keep the Senate. Party control is everything. The idea that anyone is “too good” to vote for a hack is irresponsible at best and self-destructive at the worst.
The better way is immersing oneself in local politics and party committees, but that is not likely since we are all “too busy” for that. The GOP took forty years to get back real power. We won’t give it six months. Progressives do more “magical thinking” that the people anticipating the Rapture. To counter that childishness, at least freaking VOTE next year. And vote for Dems, whoever they may be, at least for Congress and the White House. You can vote Green or whatever at the local level. Just don’t be a purist about Congress and the president.
Short or long term, realistic appraisal of who stands for human beings and who stands for theocratic corporate domination has to be uppermost in our minds. Whining won’t help. Working for authentic democracy will. The alternative really is the loss of the nation as we know it. You won’t like the results.
Perry 2012! That’s the bumper sticker I want.
Romney may be able to beat Obama, but Perry cannot. Therefore, I support Perry.